← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 70% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
| Hull win | 11% | 16% | 8.50 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hull −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Charlie Austin · West Brom |
| 12' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kevin Stewart · Hull |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mallik Wilks · Hull |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kamil Grosicki · West Brom |
| 76' | ⚽ | Grady Diangana · West Brom |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jon Toral · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hegazy · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 400.00 | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1737.16 | 1527.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.95 | -24.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.02 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| league points | 74.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.66 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 173.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |