← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Jun 28, 01:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 44% | 51% | 2.16 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 25% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Huddersfield −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ben Watson · Nott'm Forest |
| 46' | ⚽ | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sammy Ameobi · Nott'm Forest |
| 85' | ⚽ | Ryan Yates · Nott'm Forest |
| 89' | 🟥 | Juninho Bacuna · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nuno Da Costa · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Karlan Grant · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 393.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1642.75 | 1529.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.19 | -4.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 61.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.97 | 7.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 89.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |