← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 57% | 43% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.99 | value: +9% |
| Fulham win | 18% | 29% | 5.32 | value: +56% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fulham −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 35' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Fulham |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ezgjan Alioski · Leeds |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ezgjan Alioski · Leeds |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · Leeds |
| 84' | 🟨 | Neeskens Kebano · Fulham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kalvin Phillips · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Cavaleiro · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neeskens Kebano · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Neeskens Kebano · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 757.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1708.72 | 1656.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.54 | 3.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 71.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 27.99 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 271.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |