← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Jun 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Woolmer
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 54% | 36% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 19% | 37% | 5.25 | value: +92% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cardiff +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |