← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Tue, Jan 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 43% | 53% | 2.29 | value: +22% |
| Luton win | 31% | 24% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Derby +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Jayden Bogle · Derby |
| 63' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Derby |
| 67' | ⚽ | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Luton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Donervon Daniels · Luton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Chris Martin · Derby |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Jayden Bogle · Luton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ben Hamer · Derby |
| 88' | 🟨 | Wayne Rooney · Derby |
| 88' | 🟥 | Max Lowe · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 180.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1496.03 | 1617.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.85 | 25.88 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| league points | 21.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 9.32 | 10.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 26.52 |
| state index | -1.04 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 133.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |