← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 44% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Bristol City win | 27% | 37% | 3.54 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.91 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 11' | 🟨 | Ashley Williams · Bristol City |
| 11' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Brentford |
| 13' | 🟥 | Ashley Williams · Bristol City |
| 26' | ⚽ | Saïd Benrahma · Brentford |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jay Dasilva · Bristol City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · Bristol City |
| 61' | 🟨 | Rico Henry · Brentford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Ashton Gate |
| coach days | 1430.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1631.17 | 1690.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.88 | 18.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 69.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 24.97 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |