← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 59% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 18% | 19% | 5.50 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Daniel Ayala · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 57' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 69' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 69' | 🟨 | Djed Spence · Middlesbrough |
| 72' | 🟨 | Charlie Austin · West Brom |
| 82' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 85' | 🟨 | Hayden Coulson · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ashley Fletcher · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1762.69 | 1590.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.37 | 15.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 51.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 24.65 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 235.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |