← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 56% | 44% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +8% |
| Birmingham win | 19% | 29% | 5.25 | value: +50% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Hélder Costa · Leeds |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jack Harrison · Leeds |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Birmingham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gary Gardner · Birmingham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Wes Harding · Birmingham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kerim Mrabti · Birmingham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kiko Casilla · Leeds |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium |
| Edward Nketiah · Leeds |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jérémie Bela · Birmingham |
| 84' | ⚽ | Stuart Dallas · Leeds |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jefferson Montero · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lukas Jutkiewicz · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Wes Harding · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 668.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1559.26 | 1728.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.43 | -2.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.91 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 146.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |