← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 40% | 36% | 2.41 | fair |
| Charlton win | 32% | 38% | 3.08 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bristol City +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Josh Brownhill · Bristol City |
| 32' | 🟨 | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
| 40' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
| 46' | ⚽ | Andreas Weimann · Bristol City |
| 60' | ⚽ | Niclas Eliasson · Bristol City |
| 77' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alfie Doughty · Charlton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Albie Morgan · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 1150.00 | 1424.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1572.63 | 1630.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.08 | -18.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 26.23 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |