← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Fri, Dec 20, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 37% | 20% | 2.60 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 32% | 51% | 3.05 | value: +54% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Middlesbrough +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.68 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Stephen Ward · Stoke |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ashley Fletcher · Middlesbrough |
| 59' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 71' | ⚽ | Lewis Wing · Middlesbrough |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Stoke |
| 82' | 🟨 | George Saville · Middlesbrough |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jordan Cousins · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 202.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1576.24 | 1538.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.31 | -6.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.54 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 28.28 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 187.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |