← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 52% | 43% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.83 | value: +11% |
| Middlesbrough win | 22% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Middlesbrough −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | André Ayew · Swansea |
| 29' | 🟨 | George Saville · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ben Cabango · Swansea |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · Middlesbrough |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yan Dhanda · Swansea |
| 59' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Middlesbrough |
| 63' | 🟥 | Marcus Browne · Middlesbrough |
| 71' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Swansea |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sam Surridge · Swansea |
| 77' | 🟥 | Paddy McNair · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 196.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1617.02 | 1587.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.68 | 9.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 24.79 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 373.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |