← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 38% | 38% | 2.59 | fair |
| Barnsley win | 37% | 38% | 2.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Barnsley +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Barnsley |
| 12' | ⚽ | Luke Amos · QPR |
| 18' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Barnsley |
| 52' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Barnsley |
| 54' | ⚽ | Luke Amos · QPR |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Cauley Woodrow · Barnsley |
| 68' | 🟨 | Luke Thomas · Barnsley |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Barnsley |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ilias Chair · QPR |
| 82' | ⚽ | Bambo Diaby · Barnsley |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · Barnsley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nahki Wells · QPR |
| 89' | 🟨 | Grant Hall · QPR |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ilias Chair · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 43.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1519.00 | 1565.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.18 | 19.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.31 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |