← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 8, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 61% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| Swansea win | 17% | 22% | 6.08 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| West Brom −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Semi Ajayi · West Brom |
| 34' | ⚽ | Matheus Pereira · West Brom |
| 39' | ⚽ | Sam Surridge · Swansea |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 44' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nathan Ferguson · West Brom |
| 70' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kyle Edwards · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 190.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1760.33 | 1628.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.07 | -15.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| league points | 42.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.68 | 8.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 25.07 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 165.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |