← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 54% | 66% | 1.80 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.95 | fair |
| Barnsley win | 22% | 14% | 4.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Cardiff −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Barnsley |
| 20' | ⚽ | Aden Flint · Cardiff |
| 40' | 🟨 | Aapo Halme · Barnsley |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Lee Peltier · Barnsley |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mike-Steven Bähre · Barnsley |
| 68' | ⚽ | Daniel Ward · Cardiff |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lee Tomlin · Cardiff |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Williams · Barnsley |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| Lee Tomlin · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1662.09 | 1524.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.97 | -12.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 22.74 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.93 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |