← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 38% | 33% | 2.57 | fair |
| Barnsley win | 33% | 38% | 3.02 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Stoke +0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.81 |
| Over | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Lee Gregory · Stoke |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aapo Halme · Barnsley |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cameron McGeehan · Barnsley |
| 52' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Barnsley |
| 59' | 🟨 | Danny Batth · Stoke |
| 64' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dimitri Cavaré · Barnsley |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 82' | ⚽ | Patrick Schmidt · Barnsley |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnsley | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Oakwell |
| Cauley Woodrow · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1538.57 | 1518.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.26 | 6.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.91 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.64 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |