← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 68% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.93 | fair |
| Charlton win | 12% | 18% | 8.02 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Charlton −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · West Brom |
| 10' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tom Lockyer · Charlton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Charlton |
| 67' | 🟥 | Nathan Ferguson · West Brom |
| 76' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Charlton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Hal Robson-Kanu · West Brom |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Cullen · Charlton |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Josh Cullen · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 147.00 | 1089.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1720.08 | 1640.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.47 | 9.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.59 | 24.89 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 177.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |