← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Tue, Oct 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 72% | 75% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.85 | fair |
| Barnsley win | 11% | 10% | 9.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −1.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Barnsley −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.41 |
| Under | 32% | 3.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Cauley Woodrow · Barnsley |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jacob Brown · Barnsley |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cauley Woodrow · Barnsley |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mads Juel Andersen · Barnsley |
| 40' | 🟨 | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 42' | 🟨 | Romaine Sawyers · West Brom |
| 60' | 🟨 | Kenneth Dougall · Barnsley |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Bambo Diaby · West Brom |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dimitri Cavaré · Barnsley |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bradley Collins · Barnsley |
| 81' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| ⚽ |
| Matheus Pereira · West Brom |
| 84' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Barnsley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Cameron McGeehan · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor Townsend · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 143.00 | 1359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1726.18 | 1539.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.75 | -28.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 23.16 |
| state index | 1.11 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |