← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 55% | 53% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Millwall win | 18% | 21% | 5.35 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Brentford −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.69 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Shaun Hutchinson · Millwall |
| 33' | 🟨 | Murray Wallace · Millwall |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tom Bradshaw · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Brentford |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Jed Wallace · Millwall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jayson Molumby · Millwall |
| 84' | ⚽ | Josh Dasilva · Brentford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julian Jeanvier · Brentford |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Griffin Park |
| 🟨 |
| Mahlon Romeo · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Thompson · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jed Wallace · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 383.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1633.43 | 1552.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.08 | -5.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.87 | 26.09 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |