← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Fri, Oct 4, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Birmingham win | 37% | 32% | 2.64 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 32% | 37% | 3.01 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Birmingham +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Middlesbrough +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium |