← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Fri, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 42% | 33% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 27% | 37% | 3.62 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.59 |
| Over | 39% | 2.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lee Gregory · Stoke |
| 20' | 🟨 | Joe Lolley · Nott'm Forest |
| 23' | 🟨 | Michael Dawson · Nott'm Forest |
| 36' | ⚽ | Joe Lolley · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | 🟨 | Samba Sow · Nott'm Forest |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sammy Ameobi · Nott'm Forest |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ben Watson · Nott'm Forest |
| 84' | ⚽ | James McClean · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 269.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1533.78 | 1639.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.08 | 34.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 57.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 27.58 |
| state index | -1.20 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 70.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |