← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 58% | 39% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.05 | value: +17% |
| Wigan win | 17% | 32% | 5.67 | value: +80% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Leeds +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Wigan +0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand