← EFL Championship 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.59 | value: +11% |
| Bolton win | 17% | 19% | 5.89 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 1060.00 | 208.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1394.44 | 1630.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.61 | 10.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| league points | 32.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.32 |
| state index | -1.50 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 277.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |