← EFL Championship 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Webb
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hull win | 48% | 58% | 2.05 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.67 | fair |
| Wigan win | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.