← EFL Championship 2017-18 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Coote
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| QPR win | 36% | 29% | 2.71 | fair |
| Reading win | 36% | 44% | 2.74 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 27 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.