← EFL Championship 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Bond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 72% | 50% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.06 | value: +49% |
| Ipswich win | 9% | 20% | 10.78 | value: +118% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.