← EFL Championship 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J Adcock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hull win | 63% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.16 | value: +13% |
| Wolves win | 13% | 16% | 7.40 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.