← EFL Championship 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J Adcock
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bristol City win | 58% | 35% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.00 | value: +14% |
| Bolton win | 18% | 36% | 5.45 | value: +97% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.