← EFL Championship 2013-14 · Tue, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Webb
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Derby win | 49% | 40% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
| Blackpool win | 23% | 34% | 4.24 | value: +43% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.