⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

West Brom 1–1 Barnsley

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Oliver

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win67%1.40
Draw20%4.50
Barnsley win13%7.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots10
4On target4
9Corners1
6Fouls8
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromBarnsley
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
coach days305.00243.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.021.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.560.43
elo1691.491469.04
elo momentum (last 5)19.49-20.88
form points (last 5)11.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
league points90.0053.00
league rank2.0020.00
matches since blank20.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.009.00
rest days6.008.00
season ppg2.001.18
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.008.60
state index1.20-0.88
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40