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Peterboro 1–2 Leicester

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G Scott

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leicester win54%1.80
Draw26%3.60
Peterboro win20%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots8
4On target6
4Corners2
6Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroLeicester
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
coach days648.00648.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.15
dominance (last 5)0.440.52
elo1436.881591.88
elo momentum (last 5)-30.58-32.44
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
league points31.0064.00
league rank24.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg0.741.52
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.20
state index-1.16-0.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60