⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Reading 3–0 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Mon, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Woolmer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading win57%1.70
Draw25%3.80
Coventry win18%5.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
7Shots6
2On target2
4Corners4
22Fouls14
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingCoventry
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
coach days308.00794.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.430.47
elo1579.041497.94
elo momentum (last 5)11.69-24.93
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.560.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
league points52.0052.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
rest days2.002.00
season ppg1.331.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.40
state index0.29-0.64
travel kmβ€”119.40
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40