⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Newcastle 2–1 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Mon, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Hall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Newcastle win65%1.44
Draw22%4.33
Sheffield United win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots10
7On target6
6Corners8
9Fouls16
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNewcastleSheffield United
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
coach days278.003778.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)4.801.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.533.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.05
dominance (last 5)0.590.51
elo1715.671559.97
elo momentum (last 5)24.00-0.64
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.41
h2 goals (last 10)2.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
league points86.0055.00
league rank1.0011.00
matches since blank11.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.004.00
rest days2.002.00
season ppg2.151.34
shot diff avg (last 5)6.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.6010.00
state index1.29-0.09
travel kmβ€”178.80
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40