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Sheffield United 0–0 Barnsley

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Walton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield United win50%1.91
Draw27%3.40
Barnsley win23%4.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots4
7On target4
11Corners2
11Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield UnitedBarnsley
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
coach days3776.00214.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.15
dominance (last 5)0.430.49
elo1563.641489.92
elo momentum (last 5)-0.19-18.74
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points54.0050.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.004.00
rest days6.004.00
season ppg1.351.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.6010.60
state index0.07-0.67
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80