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Reading 1–1 West Brom

← EFL Championship 2009-10 Β· Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A D'Urso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win37%2.60
Reading win34%2.70
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots10
5On target6
4Corners9
13Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricReadingWest Brom
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)1.201.20
coach days299.00269.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.21
corner diff avg (last 5)3.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.183.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.590.60
elo1588.311672.70
elo momentum (last 5)44.4336.71
form points (last 5)13.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
league points51.0078.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank6.0019.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.382.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.4012.40
state index1.000.94
travel kmβ€”138.30
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40