← EFL Championship 2008-09 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S Mathieson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| Derby win | 28% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 183.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1516.96 | 1468.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.11 | -6.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 55.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.33 |
| travel km | — | 157.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |