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Swansea 0–1 Blackpool

← EFL Championship 2008-09 Β· Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C Boyeson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win56%1.72
Draw26%3.60
Blackpool win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots5
8On target3
12Corners4
7Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaBlackpool
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
coach days822.002.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.208.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.712.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.45
elo1611.711484.34
elo momentum (last 5)18.282.42
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
league points68.0053.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.511.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.60
state index0.58-0.16
travel kmβ€”247.70
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80