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Blackpool 1–1 Nott'm Forest

← EFL Championship 2008-09 Β· Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Moss

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win37%2.60
Nott'm Forest win34%2.80
Draw29%3.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots12
6On target6
5Corners10
8Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolNott'm Forest
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.207.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.851.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.460.42
elo1485.171515.93
elo momentum (last 5)1.5316.63
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points52.0049.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.181.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.408.00
state index-0.270.00
travel kmβ€”159.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00