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Coventry 0–0 Charlton

← EFL Championship 2008-09 Β· Mon, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C Boyeson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win47%2.00
Draw28%3.40
Charlton win25%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots12
3On target6
9Corners8
13Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryCharlton
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
coach days437.00864.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.323.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1487.661430.93
elo momentum (last 5)-11.7222.75
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
league points52.0033.00
league rank15.0024.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
rest days2.002.00
season ppg1.270.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.801.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.20
state index-0.31-0.10
travel kmβ€”149.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20