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Coventry 1–0 Doncaster

← EFL Championship 2008-09 Β· Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: R Beeby

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win42%2.20
Doncaster win30%3.25
Draw28%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots14
6On target9
3Corners10
14Fouls8
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventryDoncaster
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
coach days414.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.39
elo1492.341520.81
elo momentum (last 5)-4.43-14.77
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
league points47.0049.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
rest days7.004.00
season ppg1.271.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.207.60
state index-0.29-0.39
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.80