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Burnley 4–2 Crystal Palace

← EFL Championship 2008-09 Β· Wed, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C Boyeson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burnley win44%2.15
Draw29%3.20
Crystal Palace win26%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots6
8On target3
4Corners8
10Fouls14
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurnleyCrystal Palace
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.802.00
coach days1744.00527.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.03
corner diff avg (last 5)1.402.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.19
dominance (last 5)0.500.52
elo1522.161543.53
elo momentum (last 5)0.27-32.09
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points55.0047.00
league rank9.0015.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.004.00
season ppg1.531.34
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.208.80
state index0.08-0.45
travel kmβ€”302.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60