⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Southampton 3–2 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Joslin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Southampton win41%2.25
Sheffield United win33%2.87
Draw26%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots11
8On target6
8Corners8
6Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSouthamptonSheffield United
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
coach days93.003077.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.23
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.271.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.520.45
elo1492.311582.74
elo momentum (last 5)5.7742.12
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
league points51.0066.00
league rank21.008.00
matches since blank1.0011.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days6.008.00
season ppg1.131.47
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2011.00
state index-0.010.86
travel kmβ€”274.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00