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Sheffield Weds 4–1 Norwich

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Clattenburg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield Weds win55%1.72
Draw26%3.50
Norwich win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots10
6On target3
5Corners4
8Fouls2
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield WedsNorwich
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
coach daysβ€”4691.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.382.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.550.55
elo1523.181498.34
elo momentum (last 5)9.7010.32
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points52.0055.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank8.006.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.161.22
shot diff avg (last 5)2.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.4016.60
state index0.220.03
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20