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Charlton 4–1 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A D'Urso

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton win37%2.60
Coventry win34%2.80
Draw29%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots13
8On target6
9Corners6
21Fouls20
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharltonCoventry
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)3.201.60
coach days520.0093.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.26
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.901.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.43
elo1508.421479.67
elo momentum (last 5)-27.5711.26
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
league points61.0053.00
league rank12.0020.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet10.006.00
matches since win3.001.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.361.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.008.60
state index-0.57-0.10
travel kmβ€”149.80
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00