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West Brom 1–1 Southampton

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Mon, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L Mason

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
West Brom win57%1.61
Draw25%3.75
Southampton win17%5.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots6
7On target2
8Corners2
6Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWest BromSouthampton
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
coach days575.0087.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.934.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.570.59
elo1623.751487.18
elo momentum (last 5)31.38-2.17
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points77.0050.00
league rank2.0022.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days9.009.00
season ppg1.751.14
shot diff avg (last 5)3.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2011.20
state index0.83-0.08
travel kmβ€”182.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60