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Hull 1–1 QPR

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G Laws

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull win52%1.80
Draw27%3.50
QPR win21%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots6
7On target5
6Corners3
8Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHullQPR
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
coach daysβ€”194.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.26
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.092.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.700.46
elo1602.781533.65
elo momentum (last 5)45.8224.15
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.60
league points68.0054.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.003.00
rest days13.967.00
season ppg1.661.29
shot diff avg (last 5)8.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.808.60
state index1.430.05
travel kmβ€”248.90
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80