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Charlton 2–3 Wolves

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Stroud

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charlton win44%2.10
Wolves win29%3.40
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots18
8On target8
4Corners5
13Fouls23
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharltonWolves
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
cards avg (last 5)0.801.00
coach days484.00637.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.23
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.222.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.23
dominance (last 5)0.500.51
elo1535.981563.67
elo momentum (last 5)-36.817.63
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points57.0058.00
league rank10.008.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet5.005.00
matches since win5.001.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.431.49
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.40
state index-0.530.22
travel kmβ€”192.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00