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Coventry 0–0 Sheffield Weds

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Singh

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Coventry win44%2.10
Sheffield Weds win29%3.40
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots5
9On target2
6Corners1
20Fouls13
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCoventrySheffield Weds
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
coach days43.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.422.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.48
elo1448.451515.69
elo momentum (last 5)-13.7619.76
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points43.0042.00
league rank21.0022.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg1.161.17
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.008.40
state index-0.340.08
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80