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Leicester 1–4 Wolves

← EFL Championship 2006-07 Β· Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Dean

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wolves win48%1.90
Draw27%3.40
Leicester win25%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
13Shots18
5On target7
6Corners2
13Fouls13
6Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeicesterWolves
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
cards avg (last 5)1.002.20
coach days4174.00309.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.532.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.16
dominance (last 5)0.580.55
elo1458.101554.45
elo momentum (last 5)-5.313.32
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
league points53.0073.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.181.62
shot diff avg (last 5)3.603.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.6013.80
state index-0.400.27
travel kmβ€”66.80
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00