← EFL Championship 2006-07 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Beeby
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 68% | 1.33 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.75 |
| Luton win | 12% | 9.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 13 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Luton |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1573.46 | 1377.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.97 | -38.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 78.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.61 |
| travel km | — | 133.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |