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Norwich 1–0 Stoke

← EFL Championship 2006-07 Β· Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Taylor

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win39%2.37
Stoke win33%2.75
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots9
6On target3
3Corners5
14Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichStoke
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
coach days4277.001781.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.430.49
elo1479.261561.41
elo momentum (last 5)25.9417.50
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
league points47.0058.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg1.271.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6010.20
state index-0.050.31
travel kmβ€”237.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60